BusinessFree
Write your market size paragraph
Describe what you sell, to whom and where. Get a TAM, SAM and SOM paragraph with every figure sourced or labelled.
River's market size writer drafts the TAM, SAM and SOM paragraph for a pitch deck or business plan. Describe what you sell, who buys it and where, and River builds the estimate, preferring a bottom-up count of customers times price.
Every figure is either sourced, with the source named, or labelled as an estimate with the method shown. River does not borrow a large industry number that does not match your customer, and it does not present a guess as research.
For a fuller sizing with two methods compared and the assumptions that move the answer most, use River's TAM SAM SOM calculator on meetriver.com.
How to Think About Market Sizing
Market sizing shows investors the opportunity scale. TAM (Total Addressable Market) is everyone who could theoretically use your solution if you had 100% market share and no constraints. SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market) is the portion of TAM you can reach with your current business model and go-to-market approach. SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) is what you can realistically capture in the near term given competition and resources. For example, if you're building accounting software, TAM might be all small businesses globally and SAM the small businesses in your geography using cloud software. SOM is the share you can realistically win in the first few years, based on your sales capacity.
Credible market sizing uses real industry data, not made-up math. Use government statistics, industry associations, public company filings or reputable research firms, and name the source. Avoid inflated numbers from paid market research sites. Investors check sources. Better to show smaller credible market than huge unbelievable one. Bottom-up sizing (count potential customers times average revenue) is often more credible than top-down (taking percentage of huge market). Show your logic so investors can stress-test assumptions.
The market sizing paragraph should tell a story: here's the total market, here's the part we can address with our solution, here's what we can realistically capture. Numbers should get progressively smaller (TAM > SAM > SOM) showing you're realistic. If your SOM is still large (hundreds of millions or billions), that's great. Investors want big opportunities, but they also want founders who understand the path from zero to meaningful market share. Show ambition tempered with realism.
How it works
Describe your market
What you sell, who buys it, where, and what it costs.
River sizes it
Customer counts and prices are found or estimated, with sources and methods shown.
Check the figures
Review the sources and assumptions listed under the paragraph.
Adjust in chat
Ask for another geography or a top-down check against the bottom-up figure.
What you get
- TAM, SAM and SOM in one paragraph, smallest number last
- A bottom-up count of customers times price wherever the data allows
- Every figure sourced by name or labelled as an estimate with its method
- The arithmetic shown beneath the paragraph so you can check it
- No generic industry totals that do not match your customer
- A list of the assumptions that change the answer most
Common questions
How accurate are the numbers?
As accurate as the sources behind them. River names each source, prefers official statistics and public filings, and labels anything it had to estimate. Check the sources before you use the figures, and update them if you have better data.
What if my market is new or niche?
Bottom-up sizing works best here: count the customers who could buy and multiply by what they would pay. River explains how it counted, so a reader can follow the logic even where no research report exists.
Can I size a different geography?
Yes. Say where you sell, such as one state, the US or several countries, and River sizes that market. You can ask for another geography in the chat afterwards.
How big should my SOM be?
Realistic for your sales capacity over the next few years. River ties the SOM to how many customers you could plausibly win, not to an arbitrary percentage of the total.
Write your market size paragraph
Describe what you need, add any files you have, and your workspace opens with the work already underway.